5 answers about 5
years from now.
What global experts say about the mobility of tomorrow.
5 years from now
Progress is choosing the potential of tomorrow over the comforts of today – and to keep pushing for that potential to become reality.
As makers of the New Mobility World and IAA Conference on behalf of VDA, we’ve created a global community of innovators, thought leaders and decision makers, all shaping the future of mobility.
Our joint goal:
The mobility of tomorrow will be cleaner, safer, more sustainable, whilst also being more convenient and providing for a better living for everyone.
We asked these experts: “How do we get closer to that goal – not in the distant future, but within the next 5 years? What – and who – will make a difference by 2024?”
These are their answers.
evenson are consultants for the human side of progress: Via behavioral economics, we develop ideas to facilitate change and innovation, and we create concepts and projects to deliver lasting results.
Makers of the New Mobility World and IAA Conference on behalf of VDA.
According to our experts...
Mobility as a service will have the largest impact in the next 5 years.
The range of applications and services that we already see today are believed to have the largest impact, closely followed by electrification and automation.
Newcomers will shape the future more than incumbents.
Corporations and regulators come in second and third, respectively. But, in contrast to startups, these groups are also seen to potentially have a negative impact.
Progress lies in technology – and in people.
Tech takes top position. But in second place for enabling factors, the experts emphasize something decidedly non-tech: Consumers will ultimately choose the winners – and losers.
Regulators and infrastructure provide the necessary conditions.
But if they don’t, they become the paramount inhibitors to progress. Regulation and infrastructure locking us into the status quo is overwhelmingly seen to be the biggest risk.
The time for action is now – collectively and personally.
When asked about their contribution as well as insight, the majority of experts called for collaboration and collective action, and pledged changes in their personal mobility behavior.
The mobility of tomorrow:
What – and who – will make a difference?
Technologies & concepts, actors, enablers: ranking, top 3 box score. Potential inhibitors: checkbox, up to 3.
How will you personally contribute?
+ Share your additional thoughts.
“I really hope that we all learn to trust more in the user.”
“We’ve got to work together, ...”
“The biggest challenge in the next few years will be to define the roles and the responsibilities of the regulator, industry, start-ups, investors and the academy.”
“I will bike to work.”
“We will only create a change if all players in the ecosystem work together.”
“Work for collaboration and openness.”
“Public and private collaboration is a key, trigger mindset change, ‘walk the talk’.”
“The scale of overhaul necessary in the mobility industry can only be successful if all parts of the industry work together. I‘m not confident that cooperation will happen within the necessary time frame.”
“Clean power may be more urgent than the driverless vehicle.”
A survey of experts predicts that mobility services will drive the biggest change in mobility. Progress requires networks.
Berlin, September 11, 2019
“What will have the most impact on mobility over the next five years?” The majority of respondents to a survey of international mobility experts see mobility services as the strongest driver of change. This was the finding of a study conducted by the management consultancy evenson, published in conjunction with the German Association of the Automotive Industry to coincide with the IAA.
The experts’ focus is therefore not on any individual technology, but on a concept driven by data, automation, and connection. At the same time, Mobility as a Service (MaaS) calls for intensive cooperation between many representatives from the private, public, and political spheres.
New players take on a bigger role than established companies.
A key role will be played by newcomers such as start-ups and, in second place, established companies. According to experts, however, the latter may also have a hindering influence – if they wish to protect existing business models, for example. The role played by the users themselves is unique: Consumers are the only group to appear in the top three of both the supporting and potentially hindering factors.
Insight: The future belongs to the network.
The group of experts from the New Mobility World has identified a total of five trends for the next five years. “What they all have in common is that they can only be achieved with people and cooperation. Instead of individual approaches to technology, it requires the convergence of technologies. Instead of the focus on unicorns, it requires the collaboration of all stakeholders – from industry players to urban planners. Instead of the abstract beauty of a concept, the superior user experience is the paramount guarantor of success,” says Dirk O. Evenson, analyzing the findings of the survey.
“When it comes to sharing information and collaborating, innovation platforms like the IAA are fertile soil for progress, especially when ecosystems and value chains are redefined,” says Dr. Martin Koers, managing director of the VDA, the organizer of the IAA. “The findings of the survey give us encouragement as we head towards the new IAA, with new content, target groups, and formats. The New Mobility World has made a key contribution to this in conjunction with the evenson team.”
About MaaS, Mobility as a Service
Mobility as a Service describes the shift from private means of transport (e.g. privately-owned cars) to a combination of public and private mobility services (e.g. public transport, rental bikes, and car sharing). Ideally these services can be booked and paid for via one standard portal (such as an app). The aim of MaaS is to increase the efficiency of the entire mobility system, especially in urban regions.
About the study
The experts were surveyed in the run-up to the IAA Conference, the European platform for the mobility of the future. Together with the New Mobility World, collaboration throughout the entire ecosystem of new mobility is promoted through dialogue, networks, and presentations. The experts are drawn from the speakers, partners, and other members of the international ecosystem that has been established through the NMW.
evenson are consultants for progress: We use behavioral economic approaches to develop ideas and drive change and innovation. Our concepts and projects achieve lasting results.
evenson has been developing the New Mobility World since 2016 and this year is also developing the IAA Conference for the German Association of the Automotive Industry.
Dirk O Evenson
0160 – 9090 9126
Sample characteristics and size.
This survey focuses on the most impactful trends, players, enablers and inhibitors of future mobility in the next five years, as seen by international experts. We recruited our 55 participants from our extensive pool of speakers, partners and exhibitors of New Mobility World and IAA Conference of the last four years. The survey was conducted in August 2019.
Type of organizations of respondents.
Government, policy makers or public sector
Consultant or business service provider
Terminology of the survey as per question
Q1 Please rank the following technologies & concepts in the order of the largest impact until 2024.
Automation AI – Artificial Intelligence, ADAS – Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, Big Data, sensor technology...
Connectivity 5G, ITS – Intelligent Transport Systems, predictive mapping, cloud computing, IoT – Internet of Things...
Electrification alternative powertrains, sustainable energy, batteries, fuel cells, supercapacitors, smart grid and metering...
Urban Mobility Smart City, City OS, zoning and urban planning, walkability, infrastructure, complete corridors, mobility hubs...
Mobility as a Service micro mobility providers, mobility platforms, public transport/transit, flexible and shared fleets...
User Experience interface design, usability/accessibility, fun factor and gamification, choice architecture, entertainment...
Q2 Please rank the following actors in the order of the largest impact until 2024.
corporations vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, software and semiconductor manufacturers, tech (infrastructure) companies...
operators public transit, micro mobility providers, sharing service providers, mobility platform providers...
regulators government, law makers, public sector on local, regional, national or international level...
newcomers startups, new(ish) mobility companies (e.g. Tesla, Waymo, Lime)...
researchers universities, public agencies (e.g. NASA, DARPA), research organizations (e.g. Fraunhofer)...
public consumers, movements (e.g. Fridays for Future) and NGOs...
Q3 Please rank the following enablers in the order of the largest impact until 2024.
Technology We need more technological innovation. Where tech leads, future will follow.
Regulation Regulation will set the framework and focus for innovation. Without framework, chaos will reign.
Industrialisation Only industrialisation will make ideas become reality on a global scale.
Disruption It‘s time for a revolution. We can‘t built on the past. Disruption will clear the way for a better future.
Integration Mobility is a system. Only when we integrate everything will we reap the benefits of innovation.
Consumers Consumers ultimately choose winners. Superior user experience is key to success.
Q4 What - or who - are possible inhibitors that could derail progress until 2024?
Corporations Legacy companies might hinder progress to protect existing business models.
Infrastructure Our infrastructure is simply not built for the future, and nobody is willing to pay for an upgrade.
Startups Startups draw all attention – and money – away from what really matters.
Researchers Conflicting information and, sometimes alarmist doomsday scenarios might lead us the wrong way.
Regulators Regulators are slow to adapt. Regulation is prone to protect the status quo, not to promote progress.
Consumers Consumers usually choose the easy way. Consumerism and convenience might hinder conservation.
Technology Ever overpromising and underdelivering, tech will solve one problem whilst creating two new ones.
Integration The lack of integration will leave us with point solutions, and therefore with no solution at all.